Last week, Wall Street was speculating about monetary policy with the enthusiasm of commentators trying to predict who will bring home Olympic gold.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to introduce another rate hike before the end of 2016, according to the BBC, and it has just three opportunities to deliver the goods - during its September, November, or December meetings.
Analysts and pundits parsed minutes from July's FOMC meeting looking for clues about timing and found relatively few because there was no consensus view at the July meeting. The BBC wrote, "According to the minutes, some FOMC members felt 'economic conditions would soon warrant taking another step,' while others believed more data was needed." The BBC also pointed out a hike in November was unlikely because of the timing relative to the U.S. Presidential election.
The sooner-is-better camp inside the Fed has been quite vocal recently. CNBC reported New York Fed President William Dudley, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, and San Francisco Fed President John Williams each made statements confirming solid economic growth is expected during the second half of 2016, and indicating it's time to continue increasing interest rates in the United States.
Recently, the CME Fed Watch tool (which looks at 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices to gauge the likelihood of changes in Fed policy) put the probability of one-quarter to one-half percentage point rate increase during September at 88 percent.
That may change this week after Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the Fed's summer retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. She's expected to provide some indication of whether the Fed is ready to take action.
If you would like more information, just 'friend' the Fed. It now has a Facebook page.
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
Public Wi-Fi is remarkably convenient, making it possible to connect your tablet, laptop, phone, or other device in the middle of a national park, at a local bookstore or café, or while waiting for a flight. Whenever you're connecting in a public venue, remember public Wi-Fi is not secure - even if you're paying to access it. Norton warned:
"...Wi-Fi uses radio waves. The openness of these signals at public hotspots, combined with the right eavesdropping software, can allow others to take information without your knowledge - much like someone overhearing a private conversation in a crowded restaurant. Don't assume that a public Wi-Fi network is safe and secure simply because it has a password. Remember, these passwords are shared, so anyone nearby can easily hop onto the network and see what you're doing."
Protect yourself with some dos and don'ts of free public Wi-Fi:
Public Wi-Fi is wonderful - as long as you understand the risks and protect your personal information.
Weekly Focus - Think About It
"I just work hard and try my best every time I step up on those blocks. I'm very goal-oriented. I've always set high goals for myself. When I was little I never dreamed of going to the Olympics, but once I did I wanted to do my very best at that level. Four years ago, when I was visualizing my final, I never envisaged anything other than winning gold. Once I get to that level, I'm able to set the goals for myself and go out and achieve them."
--Katie Ledecky, Olympic gold medalist
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily available prices. The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market. Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998. The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones. Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. This newsletter was prepared by PEAK. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You cannot invest directly in an index. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.